What a week for Mike Hyatt, the Prez at Thomas Nelson Publishers. Early last week he announced that TN would pull out of ICRS (the big CBA book show) in Orlando this July. Then he announced that TN would also pull out of BEA (the big ABA book show for the general market). A day later, he let people know that TN was cutting 10% of its workforce. And in his blog the next day, he dropped his biggest bombshell: that TN was releasing too many under-performing books, and they planned to "eliminate a significant portion of our workload" by significantly cutting their list.

Wow. That is one lousy week.

Or maybe it turns out to be a great week — who knows? It’s got to be tough to face all these problems, and even tougher to blog about them. Mr. Hyatt keeps a blog (michaelhyatt.blogs.com), in which he reveals some of his thinking. It can be an interesting read, and kudos to the guy for being willing to share some of his thinking. He’s got to be the highest-ranking person in all of publishing to offer thoughts in that format, and he took some hits for doing so — some people posted very personal attacks on the guy.

Um… Look, let me get this out right at the start: Mike and I are acquaintances, not friends. He is always very pleasant to me, but we’re not hanging out together in Nashville or going to get a drink with one another at CBA. I don’t feel sorry for him — when he signed on to be the Boss, he had to know he’d face some tough decisions. You figure they pay him the big bucks to make these types of tough decisions. But I gained a huge measure of respect for the way he handled this. I was a publisher once (though not in a position of authority like he is), and sometimes you’re asked to look at the future and make difficult decisions. Deciding to cut people or trim books isn’t easy, but I don’t see any other publisher taking the time to post some of his or her thinking on a personal web site, so that authors and agents can review it and comment on it. And, in retrospect, each of these four decisions have big repurcussions, and each may be necessary…

DUMPING ICRS: This announcement had to send shock waves through the guys running CBA — the largest Christian book publisher has just decided to pull the plug. This is something I’m on record as having predicted the past two years (go ahead — look it up). I just keep wondering if the show is cost-effective. The CBA convention is expensive, it doesn’t lead to much book ordering for a publisher any more, and in fact it’s not really a "book" show  — it’s more of a jewelry/art/t-shirt/choir-robe/Christian crap show (see my blog last year about finding "faith filled footwear," "gospel golfballs," and "armor of God pajamas"). At least at BEA you still get to hang out with BOOK people… whereas at ICRS you’re surrounded by 19-year-old music publicists, their 44-year-old-manager-with-a-ponytail, and people pushing gospel ties. The Christian book publishers are tired of it, and are ready to create their own book show that will focus on just books. (A couple publsihers have noted to me that for all the wailing CBA bookstores do about profits being down, they seem unwilling to recognize that their businesses took a downturn when they stopped focusing on books and started selling Thomas Kinkade art and Precious Moments statuettes. We’re a culture that appreciates speciality stores, and too many CBA member stores are now nothing more than Jesus Junk Shoppes.)

So the guys at CBA immediately issued a statement, claiming that the Thomas Nelson booth space was already rented out to somebody else, and that they were moving ahead, and that all was right with the world… don’t believe it. There were more Christian books created and sold last year than ever before. We live in the Golden Age of Christian books, with incredible quantity and excellent quality. And yet CBA is shrinking. Don’t blame that on consumers, and don’t place the blame on all those publishers who are producing good books. If CBA is shrinking, it’s because the organization and its members need to change and become part of the success story that is Christian publishing. My guess is that Thomas Nelson was spending about a quarter of a million dollars on ICRS, once you factor in travel and housing for all their staff and authors. Instead, they can send a small team to Orlando to meet with their authors and key accounts in a nearby hotel suite for one-tenth of that cost. Not only is it cheaper, they won’t have to put up with the nutty side of ICRS. They can even use some of that money to send sales reps to more independent CBA stores if they want. But I think this makes perfect sense, and I think you’re going to see other publishers follow suit.

In reality, I think this spells the beginning of the end for the ICRS convention. The winter show is already dead. I think the publishers will begin to focus more on BEA, where the major accounts are already attending. Or maybe we’ll see more publisher-specific events (Thomas Nelson just hosted an event for their best customers, flying them all to Nashville for a "Nelson-only" party, to rub shoulders with authors and find out what the new products are going to be.) Having been attending for 20 years, I’ll miss the atmosphere of the old CBA conventions… but I completely understand why Mr. Hyatt has chosen this path.

LEAVING BEA: This was probably done for the same reason — it’s a chance to save money. But over time it wouldn’t surprise me to see TN back at Book Expo America. It’s a true BOOK show, and my guess is that they’ll soon be doing a better job of integrating all the religious publishers. It’s also possible the Christian publishers will create their own trade show, going back to the roots of the early CBA events, where the focus was on books and authors and meeting bookstore owners… but the industry and culture have changed. Books sales are now dominated by Barnes & Noble and Borders, the sales at Amazon top the total sales of all the independent bookstores, and among Christian publishes it’s pretty well known that if you don’t have the support of Family Stores, you probably aren’t going to succeed in the Christian market anyway. So this decision of Mr. Hyatt is more of a surprise.

AXING STAFF: This one hurts. Again, I don’t know Mike well, but he’s got to be lying awake nights with this decision. Still, Thomas Nelson is the sixth largest publisher in America (I think I’ve got that correct), and they’ve had some growth recently in an industry that has been, overall, quite flat. I think this was the most controversial step — if you’re seeing growth, why cut jobs? But over time, growth causes you to put on some fat, and occasionally you have to trim the excess. I understand they cut most of the folks who had been with the old Rutledge Hill imprint (cookbooks, country music types, and Jeff Foxworthy humor titles), some sales staff, some support people… as I said, it can’t be easy. But if you’re going to trim the list of titles, you’ve got to trim the number of people working on titles.

CUTTING THE LIST: This is the one decision that has stirred up the most controversy. Last year TN produced 700 titles. Mr. Hyatt mentioned that 23% of them (about 160 titles) provided 90% of the company income. Or, to look at it another way, they produced more than 500 titles that, cumulatively, generated only 10% of the company income. Ouch. So they’re going to trim the list. Makes sense. I think some people have over-reacted to this, thinking that TN is about to cancel a couple hundred book contracts… but that’s not what he said (at least that’s not how I read it). I think a better reading is to suggest that they plan to cancel some smaller books, put some non-performing titles out of print, and take a closer look at the projections of new titles.

Here’s what’s scary about all this: Mr. Hyatt notes that he wants the company to focus on titles that "are typically written by known authors or from authors who at least have media platforms …"  Authors and agents are worried that means there will be more of a focus on celebrity, and fewer chances for new authors to be discovered and break out. A publisher is always looking for that next great voice — the author who will come from nowhere and begin selling well. Publishing is full of stories like that — in fact, their biggest fiction author, Ted Dekker, was an unpublished wannabe when TN did his first book. So here’s a hope that "the platform question" won’t always keep them from publishing great writing on a salable idea, even if the author is unknown.

This is too long already — there’s more to say, but I’ll leave it at this: Mike Hyatt had one really bad week. But I have to tell you, I think he’s done exactly the right things. The industry is changing, and here’s a perfect example of how things are changing.

I welcome your comments and questions…

I just got back from the best writing conference I’ve ever attended — the Calvin Conference on Faith and Writing. It took place at Calvin College in Grand Rapids, and featured bestselling authors such as Haven Kimmel, Kathleen Norris, Yann Martel, Phyllis Tickle, Rob Bell, Francine Rivers, and T. Davis Bunn. Pulitzer Prize winners Michael Chabon and Edward P. Jones spoke, as did Pulitzer nominee Robert Finch, and National Book Award winner Katherine Paterson. And (probably due to a clerical error) me.

There were fascinating presentations, all done by smart people with really big titles. Mary Louise Bringle spoke on "From Despair to Healing: Theological Insights from Fiction," and others did things like "Graphalogia" and "Writing as Catechesis" and "How I Learned to Draw God." Meanwhile, I did my usual "the right way to sharpen a pencil." I also gave people tips on saving money by using toilet paper instead of kleenex. In case there were charismatics in the audience, I pretended to speak in tongues and heal somebody.

Anyway, they do this every other year at Calvin. One of the reasons I like it so much is because of the quality of writer they get. Haven Kimmel is one of my heroes, so the fact that we got a chance to sit down and yack was special. (Her most recent book, She Got Up Off the Couch, is about her mother, who rose from poor roots to become an English professor. So when I got to sit and have a conversation with her mom, I was thrilled. And charmed.) Davis Bunn proved once again to be the nicest Southern Gentleman still living. Phyllis Tickle is always nice to me, though I have no idea why. So is the poet Luci Shaw, even though I’m never smart enough to figure out what she’s saying. Being able to chat up very smart people is always nice, though they generally just stand there and wonder how I wrangled an invitation. This year I took my wife’s advice and wore a clean shirt.

Being able to listen to great writers is a gift. I got to go to dinner with three novelists I admire — Lisa Samson (whose novel Quaker Summer was just named novel of the year by Christianity Today), Claudia Mair Burney (an up-and-coming Simon & Schuster writer), and Mark Bertrand (who just signed a multi-book deal with Bethany House). Now that was fun. They seem to speak naturally using great images. Someday, when I’m old, I’d like to be as smart as them. 

Many of the writers’ conferences may not be able to afford to bring in quite so many famous writers, but there are a couple things they could emulate: Have more public conversations with writers. Don’t feel you’ve got to ask a novelist to give a workshop — many of us would prefer the chance to just sit and listen to them talk, so ask a good interviewer to chat them up in front of an audience. Have more public readings. One of the time-tested events at writing conferences is to have an author show up and read passages from his or her novel or nonfiction book. Why so many contemporary conferences have moved away from this practice is a mystery. Ask academics to participate. There were a number of English professors at this conference, and it raises the level of discussion at a conference. I’ve been teaching a couple classes in the Professional Writing Program at Taylor University this year, and I’ve been reminded that profs love the chance to share their materials with someone besides colleagues and students. Use films and music to supplement the lectures. The Calvin conference filled their evenings with four films, three open-mike poetry gatherings, two concerts, a jazz verspers service, and a worship service led by a pastor/author. They also presented a play one afternoon. It wouldn’t be too hard to schedule a variety of these types of things at a writing conference that takes place at a college or in a larger city.

Okay, I’ve got a bunch of publishing questions to catch up on — which I’ll do tomorrow, as soon as I’ve reviewed my notes from the conference so as to sound smarter than I am.

Lots going on in publishing these days…

First, Borders may or may not be in trouble. It would seem incredible that the nation’s second largest bookseller, in the midst of a growth phase with smaller "boutique" bookstores going up in malls, would suddenly be facing a financial crisis. But they say it’s caused by the tightening credit rules, debt, and the cost of money. They had to refinance a huge debt load at a very high rate — never a good sign for a business. And rumor has it Barnes & Noble is sniffing around, hoping to try and snap them up on the cheap. Nobody in publishing wants that to happen. Competition is always good for business, and B&N would have very little competition in the brick-and-mortar book business if they were to purchase Borders.

Actually, I’m not sure the government would allow it. Borders and B&N combined account for 55% of all retail book sales in this country, and surely the government would see that consumer prices would be bound to rise if the two companies merged. However, if you take into account Amazon and other online booksellers, B&N could claim the two chains only amount to about a third of all book sales…so perhaps a permissive federal regulator would allow it to happen. But I hope not. Having two companies creates competition, which is always a good thing.

Second, HarperCollins made big news with the announcement they were creating a new imprint that would rely on very different business practices than most publishers. Robert Miller, the longtime boss at Hyperion, has moved to HC to head up the new venture. The imprint will offer lower-priced books (word is they’re trying to keep hardcovers at $20), won’t pay advances to authors (instead relying on a profit-sharing plan), won’t buy display space in stores (instead relying on their online marketing efforts), and will sell books outright to retailers (rather than allowing unsold books to be returned by stores for a credit). It’s ambitious. And it’s a risk. Publishers tried the "no return" policy in the 80′s and had to abandon it largely because bookstores refused to stock their titles. But publishers feel a need to try something different — they’re being squeezed by the increasing demands of authors for advances that equal a living wage, the overall flat sales of books, the lower margins offered by big-box retailers like Wal-Mart, and the increasing cost of paper and printing. The internet has brought about significant changes in the distribution of books — now the publishers are trying to determine how that will play out in terms of the production and sale of their titles. This is a fascinating effort on the part of HarperCollins.

Third, people in the industry are seeing new publishing companies get started… making a lot of folks wonder what the trouble is with the established houses. The thinking goes like this: "If people are starting new publishing businesses, they must see the potential to make money with books… so why would the established book publishers and book sellers not be making money?" It’s an excellent question, and the answer probably lies in the transition from a brick-based economy to an ether-based economy. The new startup companies are planning to build their organizations largely through internet sales and marketing, they’re using profit-sharing plans with authors, and they’re trying to get ahead of the curve with things like distribution and niche-marketing. Summerside Press, a new company formed by some former employees at Barbour, is creating a line of romance novels based on American cities with interesting names. They offer a fair contract for their market, are establishing a marketing and sales channel, and have a plan that is based on an economy in the new millennium. Similarly, I’m told former CBA editor Jeff Gerke is setting up a line of speculative novels based on a profit-sharing plan. We’re going to see more publishing companies like this get started in the near future — and history tells us that some of them are going to break out and establish themselves in the market. That’s good news for authors.

Fourth, it was revealed that several of the New York houses have distributed Sony Readers (the digital book created by Sony) to their editors. Upon hearing it, I knew it made perfect sense — instead of lugging home a bag of books, they’ll just have to carry one book-sized Reader. Of course, nobody could have been more dismayed at the news than Jeff Bezos, the head man at Amazon. His Kindle e-book reader is a better product, but costs $100 more than the Sony, AND they’ve had problems fulfilling orders (some customers claim they’ve waited six weeks to receive a Kindle).

I much prefer the Kindle to the Sony Reader, but I’ve seen Sony Blu-Ray defeat standard DVDs, and Sony Beta technology become the standard in the film industry… so something tells me they’re making a push to establish their product as the #1 e-book reader. I’m on record as saying we haven’t seen the perfect e-reader yet (the Kindle feels plasticky and doesn’t do graphics; the Sony screen is hard to read and doesn’t have the features I’d want). I’ll bet the folks at Amazon wish they’d thought to send free Kindles to all the publishers. If you want to get readers on your side, convince the editors first.

Fifth, there’s a hue and cry going up among those that self-publish. Amazon, the nation’s largest e-tailer of books, announced that print-on-demand titles must now be created through their own POD service, BookSurge. You can look at this one of two ways: it’s either a business being a business, or it’s a huge power grab by a company bent on dominating the little guy. Let’s say you’re a speaker, who uses POD books to support your organization with back-of-the-room sales. Normally you’d shop around to find the best balance of quality printing with reasonable prices, then you’d let everyone know the book is available at Amazon. No more. If you’re going to sell your book through Amazon, you’re going to have to use their BookSurge division, which means paying their established prices. (And things can’t be terribly chummy between the folks at Amazon and the people at Ingram, the mega-supplier who has worked with numerous POD authors through their LightningSource program. I wonder how this will play out.) The reason this is important to you is that it reminds us that the best thing for authors is to have multiple vendors and alternatives — not to have everything run through one company.

I’ll get back to writing and questions next time, but I thought it was important to note the significant changes going on in our industry. Would love to know what you think.

Some new information has come out on the bestselling books of 2007, and it’s fascinating stuff…

First, there were nine novels that sold a million copies last year, according to Publishers Weekly (in fact, all the numbers in this column will be based on the most recent issue of PW): Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, A Thousand Splendid Suns, Playing for Pizza, Double Cross, The Choice, Lean Mean Thirteen, Plum Lovin, Eclipse, and Book of the Dead. I don’t know how many of those you read but I can tell you it was a great year for Janet Evanovich, and that Pizza is one of Grisham’s clunkers. Ugh.

Second, there were sort-of seven nonfiction hardcover books that sold a million copies last year: The Secret, The Dangerous Book for Boys, Decelptively Delicious, You: Staying Young, I Am America (and so can you), Become a Better You, and, apparently, The Daring Book for Girls. My reason for saying there were "sort of" seven books is because the recorded sales for that last book was exactly one million copies… which would have been an amazing coincidence. (On an honest note, You: On a Diet came in less than 2000 copies short of a million.)

Third, there were eleven trade paperback titles that hit the magic mark: Eat Pray Love, The Kite Runner, Water for Elephants, The Road, The Memory Keeper’s Daughter, The Pillars of the Earth, Love in the Time of Cholera, 90 Minutes in Heaven, Jeusalem Countdown, Middlesex, and Measure of a Man. And no, I’m not kidding… John Hagee’s Jerusalem really did sell more than a million copies. Unbelievable.

Fourth, there were sixteen mass market novels that sold a million copies. I won’t list them all by title, but Nora Roberts held places #1 and #3, and James Patterson held #2, 4, 5, and 6.

Fifth, the only children’s book to pass the million mark was Philip Pullman’s The Golden Compass, though it first released ten years ago. James Patterson, who apparently has cloned himself in order to write in every genre, fell 250 copies short of a million with Maximum Ride: School’s Out Forever.

Some interesting facts:

-Of the more than four million books in print last year, 44 hit the million mark.

-Of the 250,000 NEW books published last year, 17 of them sold a million copies. (That would be .00006.) 

-If we assume selling 200,000 copies is the mark of a breakout book, there were 62 hardcover novels, 63 hardcover nonfiction titles, and 71 trade paperbacks that hit the big time.

-If we assume selling 500,000 is the bar for making it big in mass market, there were 90 titles that made it.

-It was nice to see some literary fiction do well, particularly in the trade papers. The Kite Runner, Water for Elephants, The Road, The Memory Keeper’s Daughter, and Love in the Time of Cholera are not your fast commercial reads.

-Some things just keep selling. Love in the Time of Cholera was released in 1985 (nice to see what Oprah can do for you, isn’t it?). Pillars of the Earth was released in 1989.

-Readers continue to fall in love with novelists and stay with them. I can’t count the number of James Patterson titles on all these lists. Similarly we see a lot of Nicholas Sparks, Janet Evanovich, David Baldacci, Nora Roberts, Mary Higgins Clark, and Debbie Macomber.

-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows was the bestselling book of all last year, selling more than thirteen million copies. That’s now the bestselling fiction series of all time.

-The Secret was the next bestselling book. Booksellers moved 4,590,000 copies, just outpacing the trade paperback edition of Eat, Pray, Love. The only other books to pass the two million mark were Kite Runner, Thousand Splended Suns, and Blood Brothers.

-Joel Osteen must live a charmed life. His Become a Better You sold 1,181,173 copies, which is amazing.

-The bestselling Christian book last year belonged to my good buddy Cec Murphey, whose 90 Minutes in Heaven sold 1,273,000 in trade paper — not bad for a book that came out back in 2006.

-It’s amazing to see how many good Christian books sold 100,000 copies or more. Thomas Nelson is all over the list with titles from Emerson Eggerichs, Beth Moore, Billy Graham, Max Lucado, Robin McGraw, Chip Davis, John Maxwell, Deborah Norville, Bill Cosby, John MacArthur, and Dave Ramsey. Mike Hyatt, the Prez at Thomas Nelson, deserves a parade. I don’t know if there is a better-run company in publishing.

-Tyndale also had several titles on the >100,000 list, by authors like Karen Kingsbury and Joel Rosenberg. (And it should be noted that Tony Dungy’s Quiet Strength sold 820,124 copies in hardcover.)

-It’s always nice to see small books do well — Deborah Rodriguez’s The Kabul Beauty School sold 102,000 copies. A.J. Jacob’s The Year of Living Biblically sold 113,000 copies.

-It’s always nice to see old friends do well — Kurt Vonnegut’s Slaughterhouse Five sold 125,000 copies, 38 years after its release. And Horton Hatches teh Egg sold more than a quarter million copies 67 years after its first release. (Hop on Pop passed the half million mark last year, and The Cat in the Hat came close to that.)

-It’s always nice to see a jerk fall on his face. For all the hoopla John Dean got, the publicity-seeking ex-con who turned on his friends in order to cut a deal had plenty of media, but tepid sales. Ditto famous nutjob atheist Richard Dawkins — for all the press the guy gets, his book barely topped the 100,000 mark.

-Sometimes there’s just no telling… United States Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’s book My Grandfather’s Son sold 283,000 copies. So did Jeff Foxworthy’s Redneck Dictionary III. My guess is they weren’t bought by the same people.